Ariana Arseneault vs Naomi Osaka · Match odds & ELO prediction
Montreal • Hard • Jul 28, 2025 • 7:25 PM
Final score
0 - 2
Winner Naomi Osaka
Key insights
Player performance profile
Ariana Arseneault
44% · 15–19 on hard
Games won (last 10)
34%
4 matches tracked · limited sample
Player Skillset
Based on ~136 points across 1 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~136 points across 1 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.5 | 82% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.6 | 31% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +3.0 | 73% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | Insufficient data | — | — |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Naomi Osaka
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
52%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,558 points across 44 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,558 points across 44 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.8 | 99% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.3 | 34% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +7.0 | 91% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 80% | 93% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Ariana Arseneault and Naomi Osaka are set to meet at the Montreal on July 28, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Arseneault enters with a 15–19 record on hard courts in 2025, while Osaka has posted a 24–9 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Arseneault entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Osaka leads 1–0 over Arseneault, including a win in their most recent meeting.