Andrey Rublev vs Lorenzo Sonego · Match odds & ELO prediction
Toronto • Hard • Aug 1, 2025 • 4:40 PM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Andrey Rublev
Key insights
Player performance profile
Andrey Rublev
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
53%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,935 points across 74 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,935 points across 74 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.9 | 85% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.5 | 56% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -5.3 | 10% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 38% | 20% | Vulnerable |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Lorenzo Sonego
50% · 2–2 on hard
25% · 1–3 on clay
Games won (last 10)
46%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,932 points across 58 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,932 points across 58 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.7 | 79% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.9 | 12% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.9 | 66% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 46% | 38% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Andrey Rublev and Lorenzo Sonego are set to meet at the Toronto on August 1, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Rublev enters with a 22–17 record on hard courts in 2025, while Sonego has posted a 19–20 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Sonego entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Rublev leads 3–1 over Sonego, including a win in their most recent meeting.