Andrey Rublev vs Alex De Minaur · Match odds & ELO prediction
Doha • Hard • Feb 20, 2025 • 11:40 AM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Andrey Rublev
Key insights
Player performance profile
Andrey Rublev
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
55%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,426 points across 57 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,426 points across 57 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.9 | 85% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.8 | 52% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -5.4 | 11% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 39% | 24% | Vulnerable |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Alex De Minaur
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
53%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,816 points across 80 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,816 points across 80 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.6 | 80% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.9 | 98% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -4.3 | 18% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 44% | 34% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Andrey Rublev and Alex De Minaur are set to meet at the Doha on February 20, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Rublev enters with a 22–17 record on hard courts in 2025, while Minaur has posted a 41–16 mark on hard courts this season. Based on Elo ratings, this projects as a tight matchup with neither player holding more than a slight statistical edge. In their head-to-head history, Rublev leads 5–2 over Minaur, including a win in their most recent meeting.