Alexei Popyrin vs Matteo Berrettini · Match odds & ELO prediction
Rome • Clay • May 7, 2026 • 9:15 AM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Alexei Popyrin
Key insights
Player performance profile
Alexei Popyrin
18% · 2–9 on hard
40% · 2–3 on clay
Games won (last 10)
50%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,785 points across 46 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,785 points across 46 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.1 | 54% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -4.3 | 10% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -1.1 | 38% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 52% | 55% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Matteo Berrettini
60% · 3–2 on hard
50% · 7–7 on clay
Games won (last 10)
52%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,666 points across 44 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,666 points across 44 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.5 | 97% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -4.2 | 10% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.5 | 63% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 51% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Alexei Popyrin and Matteo Berrettini are set to meet at the Rome on May 7, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Popyrin enters with a 2–3 record on clay courts in 2026, while Berrettini has posted a 7–7 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Popyrin entering this matchup. Their head-to-head is currently level, with each player having recorded 2 wins.