Alexei Popyrin vs Casper Ruud · Match odds & ELO prediction
Monte Carlo • Clay • Apr 10, 2025 • 11:05 AM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Alexei Popyrin
Key insights
Player performance profile
Alexei Popyrin
18% · 2–9 on hard
40% · 2–3 on clay
Games won (last 10)
50%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,785 points across 46 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,785 points across 46 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.1 | 54% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -4.3 | 10% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -1.1 | 38% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 52% | 55% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Casper Ruud
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
60%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,691 points across 65 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,691 points across 65 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.7 | 80% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.4 | 79% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +3.9 | 80% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 63% | 79% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Alexei Popyrin and Casper Ruud are set to meet at the Monte Carlo on April 10, 2025 in a clay-court singles match. Popyrin enters with a 9–6 record on clay courts in 2025, while Ruud has posted a 14–5 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Ruud entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Ruud leads 2–1 over Popyrin, including a win in their most recent meeting.