Alex Bolt vs Rio Noguchi · Match odds & ELO prediction
Busan • Hard • Apr 17, 2026 • 2:10 AM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Alex Bolt
Key insights
Player performance profile
Alex Bolt
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
51%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~2,133 points across 13 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~2,133 points across 13 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.1 | 53% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.7 | 31% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -3.1 | 24% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 40% | 23% | Vulnerable |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Rio Noguchi
100% · 5–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
55%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~269 points across 2 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~269 points across 2 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.3 | 4% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.5 | 60% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.4 | 54% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | Insufficient data | — | — |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Alex Bolt and Rio Noguchi are set to meet at the Busan on April 17, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Bolt enters with a 0–1 record on hard courts in 2026, while Noguchi has posted a 5–0 mark on hard courts this season. Based on Elo ratings, this projects as a tight matchup with neither player holding more than a slight statistical edge. In their head-to-head history, Bolt leads 4–0 over Noguchi, including a win in their most recent meeting.