Alejandro Tabilo vs Sebastian Baez · Match odds & ELO prediction
ATP Santiago • Clay • Feb 28, 2026 • 12:00 AM
Final score
0 - 2
Winner Sebastian Baez
Key insights
Player performance profile
Alejandro Tabilo
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
55%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,984 points across 42 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,984 points across 42 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.5 | 65% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -4.0 | 12% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.3 | 59% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 52% | 58% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Sebastian Baez
100% · 3–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
53%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,746 points across 50 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,746 points across 50 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.6 | 3% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.2 | 93% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +2.0 | 65% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 46% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Alejandro Tabilo and Sebastian Baez are set to meet at the ATP Santiago on February 28, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Tabilo enters with limited recorded results on clay courts in 2026, while Baez has limited recorded results on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Tabilo entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Baez leads 2–1 over Tabilo, including a win in their most recent meeting.