Alejandro Tabilo vs Pablo Carreno-Busta · Match odds & ELO prediction
Olbia • Hard • Oct 17, 2025 • 1:10 PM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Pablo Carreno-Busta
Key insights
Player performance profile
Alejandro Tabilo
55% · 6–5 on hard
72% · 18–7 on clay
Games won (last 10)
56%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,287 points across 51 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,287 points across 51 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.9 | 70% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -4.0 | 11% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -0.1 | 46% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 48% | 42% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Pablo Carreno-Busta
53% · 8–7 on hard
79% · 11–3 on clay
Games won (last 10)
48%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,434 points across 41 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,434 points across 41 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.5 | 45% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.3 | 41% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -0.3 | 44% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 53% | 57% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Alejandro Tabilo and Pablo Carreno-Busta are set to meet at the Olbia on October 17, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Tabilo enters with a 21–16 record on hard courts in 2025, while Carreno-Busta has posted a 26–12 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Carreno-Busta entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Carreno-Busta leads 2–1 over Tabilo.