Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Pablo Carreno-Busta · Match odds & ELO prediction
Madrid • Clay • Apr 25, 2026 • 9:10 AM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Key insights
Player performance profile
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
49%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,163 points across 77 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,163 points across 77 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.2 | 40% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.3 | 86% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +6.2 | 92% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 59% | 72% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Pablo Carreno-Busta
53% · 8–7 on hard
79% · 11–3 on clay
Games won (last 10)
48%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,434 points across 41 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,434 points across 41 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.5 | 45% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.3 | 41% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -0.3 | 44% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 53% | 57% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Pablo Carreno-Busta are set to meet at the Madrid on April 25, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Fokina enters with limited recorded results on clay courts in 2026, while Carreno-Busta has posted a 11–3 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Carreno-Busta entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Fokina leads 1–0 over Carreno-Busta, including a win in their most recent meeting.