Ajla Tomljanovic vs Jessica Pegula · Match odds & ELO prediction
Beijing • Hard • Sep 27, 2025 • 7:50 AM
Final score
0 - 2
Winner Jessica Pegula
Key insights
Player performance profile
Ajla Tomljanovic
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
53%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,420 points across 54 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,420 points across 54 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.4 | 53% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.9 | 44% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.7 | 63% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 58% | 68% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Jessica Pegula
75% · 3–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
60%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,982 points across 88 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,982 points across 88 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.3 | 96% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.5 | 73% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.3 | 60% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 60% | 73% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Ajla Tomljanovic and Jessica Pegula are set to meet at the Beijing on September 27, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Tomljanovic enters with a 14–16 record on hard courts in 2025, while Pegula has posted a 37–14 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Pegula entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Pegula leads 4–0 over Tomljanovic, including a win in their most recent meeting.