Alex De Minaur vs Tommy Paul · Match odds & ELO prediction
Hamburg • Clay • May 22, 2026 • 3:40 PM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Tommy Paul
Key insights
Player performance profile
Alex De Minaur
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
51%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,447 points across 97 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,447 points across 97 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.2 | 72% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.4 | 97% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -1.9 | 30% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 47% | 37% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Tommy Paul
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
57%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,879 points across 63 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,879 points across 63 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.3 | 75% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.1 | 93% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.5 | 53% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 46% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Alex De Minaur and Tommy Paul are set to meet at the Hamburg on May 22, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Minaur enters with limited recorded results on clay courts in 2026, while Paul has limited recorded results on clay courts this season. Based on Elo ratings, this projects as a tight matchup with neither player holding more than a slight statistical edge. In their head-to-head history, Minaur leads 5–2 over Paul.