Alex De Minaur vs Tommy Paul · Match odds & ELO prediction
Hamburg • Clay • May 22, 2026 • 3:40 PM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Tommy Paul
Key insights
Player performance profile
Alex De Minaur
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
57%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,631 points across 98 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,631 points across 98 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.0 | 72% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.4 | 97% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -1.8 | 31% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 47% | 38% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Tommy Paul
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
58%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,879 points across 63 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,879 points across 63 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.3 | 75% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.1 | 92% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.5 | 53% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 46% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Alex De Minaur and Tommy Paul are set to meet at the Hamburg on May 22, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Minaur enters with limited recorded results on clay courts in 2026, while Paul has limited recorded results on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Paul entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Minaur leads 5–2 over Paul.