Jessica Pegula vs Anastasia Potapova · Match odds & ELO prediction
Rome • Clay • May 11, 2026 • 4:05 PM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Jessica Pegula
Key insights
Player performance profile
Jessica Pegula
83% · 19–4 on hard
86% · 6–1 on clay
Games won (last 10)
56%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,344 points across 91 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,344 points across 91 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.3 | 96% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.5 | 74% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.0 | 58% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 62% | 76% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Anastasia Potapova
47% · 7–8 on hard
79% · 11–3 on clay
Games won (last 10)
57%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,951 points across 59 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,951 points across 59 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.5 | 55% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.1 | 62% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -0.5 | 42% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 42% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Jessica Pegula and Anastasia Potapova are set to meet at the Rome on May 11, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Pegula enters with a 6–1 record on clay courts in 2026, while Potapova has posted a 11–3 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Potapova, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Pegula leads 4–0 over Potapova, including a win in their most recent meeting.