Madison Keys vs Nikola Bartunkova · Match odds & ELO prediction
Rome • Clay • May 10, 2026 • 9:10 AM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Nikola Bartunkova
Key insights
Player performance profile
Madison Keys
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
58%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,359 points across 62 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,359 points across 62 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.2 | 90% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.1 | 65% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +5.1 | 85% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 75% | 92% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Nikola Bartunkova
67% · 12–6 on hard
50% · 3–3 on clay
Games won (last 10)
49%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~2,555 points across 18 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~2,555 points across 18 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.9 | 63% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.3 | 36% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.2 | 59% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | Insufficient data | — | — |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Madison Keys and Nikola Bartunkova are set to meet at the Rome on May 10, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Keys enters with limited recorded results on clay courts in 2026, while Bartunkova has posted a 3–3 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Keys entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Bartunkova leads 1–0 over Keys, including a win in their most recent meeting.