Aryna Sabalenka vs Sorana Cirstea · Match odds & ELO prediction
Rome • Clay • May 9, 2026 • 2:05 PM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Sorana Cirstea
Key insights
Player performance profile
Aryna Sabalenka
96% · 23–1 on hard
75% · 3–1 on clay
Games won (last 10)
59%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,083 points across 93 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,083 points across 93 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 6.1 | 99% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.8 | 80% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +9.6 | 98% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 80% | 97% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Sorana Cirstea
77% · 17–5 on hard
75% · 6–2 on clay
Games won (last 10)
56%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,056 points across 70 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,056 points across 70 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.6 | 92% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.9 | 42% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +4.0 | 78% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 65% | 78% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Aryna Sabalenka and Sorana Cirstea are set to meet at the Rome on May 9, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Sabalenka enters with a 3–1 record on clay courts in 2026, while Cirstea has posted a 6–2 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Sabalenka entering this matchup. Their head-to-head is currently level, with each player having recorded 2 wins.