Madison Keys vs Peyton Stearns · Match odds & ELO prediction
Rome • Clay • May 8, 2026 • 11:40 AM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Madison Keys
Key insights
Player performance profile
Madison Keys
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
58%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,359 points across 62 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,359 points across 62 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.2 | 90% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.1 | 65% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +5.1 | 85% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 75% | 92% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Peyton Stearns
58% · 11–8 on hard
40% · 2–3 on clay
Games won (last 10)
48%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,132 points across 55 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,132 points across 55 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.2 | 43% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.8 | 29% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -2.7 | 25% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 37% | 20% | Vulnerable |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Madison Keys and Peyton Stearns are set to meet at the Rome on May 8, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Keys enters with limited recorded results on clay courts in 2026, while Stearns has posted a 2–3 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Keys entering this matchup. Their head-to-head is currently level, with each player having recorded 1 wins.