Sebastian Baez vs Alexander Bublik · Match odds & ELO prediction
Rome • Clay • May 8, 2026 • 3:55 PM
Final score
0 - 2
Winner Alexander Bublik
Key insights
Player performance profile
Sebastian Baez
71% · 10–4 on hard
50% · 7–7 on clay
Games won (last 10)
44%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,924 points across 60 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,924 points across 60 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.7 | 3% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.5 | 95% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +2.8 | 75% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 45% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Alexander Bublik
100% · 4–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
46%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,471 points across 75 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,471 points across 75 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.7 | 90% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.2 | 23% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +4.2 | 82% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 61% | 76% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Sebastian Baez and Alexander Bublik are set to meet at the Rome on May 8, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Baez enters with a 7–7 record on clay courts in 2026, while Bublik has limited recorded results on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Bublik entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Bublik leads 2–0 over Baez, including a win in their most recent meeting.