Pablo Carreno-Busta vs Alejandro Tabilo · Match odds & ELO prediction
Rome • Clay • May 6, 2026 • 4:20 PM
Final score
0 - 2
Winner Alejandro Tabilo
Key insights
Player performance profile
Pablo Carreno-Busta
53% · 8–7 on hard
79% · 11–3 on clay
Games won (last 10)
48%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,434 points across 41 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,434 points across 41 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.5 | 45% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.3 | 41% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -0.3 | 44% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 53% | 57% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Alejandro Tabilo
55% · 6–5 on hard
72% · 18–7 on clay
Games won (last 10)
56%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,287 points across 51 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,287 points across 51 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.9 | 70% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -4.0 | 11% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -0.1 | 46% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 48% | 42% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Pablo Carreno-Busta and Alejandro Tabilo are set to meet at the Rome on May 6, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Carreno-Busta enters with a 11–3 record on clay courts in 2026, while Tabilo has posted a 18–7 mark on clay courts this season. Based on Elo ratings, this projects as a tight matchup with neither player holding more than a slight statistical edge. In their head-to-head history, Carreno-Busta leads 2–1 over Tabilo.