Denis Shapovalov vs Mariano Navone · Match odds & ELO prediction
Rome • Clay • May 7, 2026 • 6:10 PM
Final score
0 - 2
Winner Mariano Navone
Key insights
Player performance profile
Denis Shapovalov
50% · 6–6 on hard
40% · 2–3 on clay
Games won (last 10)
43%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,104 points across 52 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,104 points across 52 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.2 | 40% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.1 | 83% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +4.4 | 84% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 59% | 71% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Mariano Navone
55% · 6–5 on hard
57% · 8–6 on clay
Games won (last 10)
52%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,305 points across 57 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,305 points across 57 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.6 | 8% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.7 | 98% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -4.7 | 13% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 36% | 17% | Vulnerable |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Denis Shapovalov and Mariano Navone are set to meet at the Rome on May 7, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Shapovalov enters with a 2–3 record on clay courts in 2026, while Navone has posted a 8–6 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Shapovalov entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Navone leads 2–0 over Shapovalov, including a win in their most recent meeting.