Lucrezia Stefanini vs Jelena Ostapenko · Match odds & ELO prediction
Rome • Clay • May 6, 2026 • 9:10 AM
Final score
0 - 2
Winner Jelena Ostapenko
Key insights
Player performance profile
Lucrezia Stefanini
47% · 8–9 on hard
0% · 0–3 on clay
Games won (last 10)
38%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,694 points across 34 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,694 points across 34 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.9 | 3% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.4 | 97% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -3.1 | 23% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 43% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Jelena Ostapenko
53% · 9–8 on hard
50% · 3–3 on clay
Games won (last 10)
54%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,361 points across 51 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,361 points across 51 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.7 | 36% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.9 | 81% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -0.5 | 44% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 47% | 39% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Lucrezia Stefanini and Jelena Ostapenko are set to meet at the Rome on May 6, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Stefanini enters with a 0–3 record on clay courts in 2026, while Ostapenko has posted a 3–3 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Ostapenko entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Ostapenko leads 1–0 over Stefanini, including a win in their most recent meeting.