Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Tomas Barrios Vera · Match odds & ELO prediction
Rome • Clay • May 5, 2026 • 8:30 AM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Daniel Merida Aguilar
Key insights
Player performance profile
Daniel Merida Aguilar
67% · 12–6 on hard
76% · 13–4 on clay
Games won (last 10)
48%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,216 points across 21 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,216 points across 21 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.4 | 10% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.7 | 90% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +4.2 | 82% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 75% | 94% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Tomas Barrios Vera
55% · 6–5 on hard
47% · 9–10 on clay
Games won (last 10)
53%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,672 points across 32 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,672 points across 32 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.8 | 15% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.5 | 58% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.3 | 61% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 40% | 22% | Vulnerable |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Daniel Merida Aguilar and Tomas Barrios Vera are set to meet at the Rome on May 5, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Aguilar enters with a 13–4 record on clay courts in 2026, while Vera has posted a 9–10 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Aguilar entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Aguilar leads 1–0 over Vera, including a win in their most recent meeting.