Cristian Garin vs Jan Choinski · Match odds & ELO prediction
Rome • Clay • May 5, 2026 • 8:20 AM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Cristian Garin
Key insights
Player performance profile
Cristian Garin
0% · 0–5 on hard
57% · 8–6 on clay
Games won (last 10)
53%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,170 points across 38 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,170 points across 38 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.0 | 37% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.3 | 88% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -5.2 | 10% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 35% | 16% | Vulnerable |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Jan Choinski
45% · 5–6 on hard
33% · 4–8 on clay
Games won (last 10)
48%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~2,075 points across 13 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~2,075 points across 13 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.1 | 37% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.4 | 20% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.2 | 61% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 33% | 16% | Vulnerable |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Cristian Garin and Jan Choinski are set to meet at the Rome on May 5, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Garin enters with a 8–6 record on clay courts in 2026, while Choinski has posted a 4–8 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Garin, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Garin leads 2–0 over Choinski, including a win in their most recent meeting.