Pablo Carreno-Busta vs Martin Damm · Match odds & ELO prediction
Rome • Clay • May 4, 2026 • 9:50 AM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Pablo Carreno-Busta
Key insights
Player performance profile
Pablo Carreno-Busta
53% · 8–7 on hard
79% · 11–3 on clay
Games won (last 10)
48%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,434 points across 41 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,434 points across 41 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.5 | 45% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.3 | 41% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -0.3 | 44% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 53% | 57% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Martin Damm
58% · 11–8 on hard
43% · 3–4 on clay
Games won (last 10)
47%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~2,283 points across 14 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~2,283 points across 14 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.9 | 98% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -5.5 | 4% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +3.3 | 76% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 75% | 96% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Pablo Carreno-Busta and Martin Damm are set to meet at the Rome on May 4, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Carreno-Busta enters with a 11–3 record on clay courts in 2026, while Damm has posted a 3–4 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Carreno-Busta entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Carreno-Busta leads 1–0 over Damm, including a win in their most recent meeting.