Matteo Arnaldi vs Nuno Borges · Match odds & ELO prediction
Cagliari • Clay • May 1, 2026 • 10:10 AM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Matteo Arnaldi
Key insights
Player performance profile
Matteo Arnaldi
25% · 1–3 on hard
55% · 6–5 on clay
Games won (last 10)
52%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,434 points across 57 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,434 points across 57 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.4 | 19% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.8 | 32% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +3.8 | 79% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 59% | 71% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Nuno Borges
47% · 7–8 on hard
38% · 3–5 on clay
Games won (last 10)
51%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,109 points across 72 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,109 points across 72 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.1 | 55% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.4 | 40% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -3.7 | 18% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 39% | 22% | Vulnerable |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Matteo Arnaldi and Nuno Borges are set to meet at the Cagliari on May 1, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Arnaldi enters with a 6–5 record on clay courts in 2026, while Borges has posted a 3–5 mark on clay courts this season. Based on Elo ratings, this projects as a tight matchup with neither player holding more than a slight statistical edge. In their head-to-head history, Borges leads 2–1 over Arnaldi.