Marta Kostyuk vs Anastasia Potapova · Match odds & ELO prediction
Madrid • Clay • Apr 30, 2026 • 8:05 PM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Marta Kostyuk
Key insights
Player performance profile
Marta Kostyuk
80% · 4–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
63%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,608 points across 65 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,608 points across 65 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.2 | 80% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.7 | 90% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.8 | 55% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 54% | 56% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Anastasia Potapova
47% · 7–8 on hard
79% · 11–3 on clay
Games won (last 10)
58%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,215 points across 61 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,215 points across 61 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.5 | 58% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.2 | 58% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -0.9 | 40% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 52% | 52% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Marta Kostyuk and Anastasia Potapova are set to meet at the Madrid on April 30, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Kostyuk enters with limited recorded results on clay courts in 2026, while Potapova has posted a 11–3 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Kostyuk, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Kostyuk leads 3–2 over Potapova, including a win in their most recent meeting.