Manuel Cerundolo Juan vs Matteo Arnaldi · Match odds & ELO prediction
Cagliari • Clay • Apr 30, 2026 • 11:55 AM
Final score
0 - 2
Winner Matteo Arnaldi
Key insights
Player performance profile
Manuel Cerundolo Juan
50% · 2–2 on hard
57% · 12–9 on clay
Games won (last 10)
53%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,626 points across 50 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,626 points across 50 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.9 | 24% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.3 | 88% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -2.0 | 29% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 43% | 27% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Matteo Arnaldi
25% · 1–3 on hard
55% · 6–5 on clay
Games won (last 10)
52%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,434 points across 57 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,434 points across 57 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.4 | 19% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.8 | 32% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +3.8 | 79% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 59% | 71% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Manuel Cerundolo Juan and Matteo Arnaldi are set to meet at the Cagliari on April 30, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Juan enters with a 12–9 record on clay courts in 2026, while Arnaldi has posted a 6–5 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Arnaldi entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Arnaldi leads 1–0 over Juan, including a win in their most recent meeting.