Aryna Sabalenka vs Hailey Baptiste · Match odds & ELO prediction
Madrid • Clay • Apr 28, 2026 • 6:10 PM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Hailey Baptiste
Key insights
Player performance profile
Aryna Sabalenka
96% · 23–1 on hard
75% · 3–1 on clay
Games won (last 10)
59%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,083 points across 93 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,083 points across 93 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 6.1 | 99% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.8 | 80% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +9.6 | 98% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 80% | 97% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Hailey Baptiste
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
49%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,605 points across 66 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,605 points across 66 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.9 | 86% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.9 | 15% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -0.6 | 41% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 52% | 52% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Aryna Sabalenka and Hailey Baptiste are set to meet at the Madrid on April 28, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Sabalenka enters with a 3–1 record on clay courts in 2026, while Baptiste has limited recorded results on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Sabalenka entering this matchup. Their head-to-head is currently level, with each player having recorded 1 wins.