Federico Arnaboldi vs Luca Castagnola · Match odds & ELO prediction
Cagliari • Clay • Apr 27, 2026 • 8:10 AM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Federico Arnaboldi
Key insights
Player performance profile
Federico Arnaboldi
46% · 6–7 on hard
59% · 10–7 on clay
Games won (last 10)
50%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~859 points across 6 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~859 points across 6 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.6 | 7% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.3 | 42% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +3.7 | 77% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | Insufficient data | — | — |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Luca Castagnola
46% · 16–19 on hard
50% · 13–13 on clay
Games won (last 10)
49%
10 matches tracked
Match Overview
Federico Arnaboldi and Luca Castagnola are set to meet at the Cagliari on April 27, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Arnaboldi enters with a 10–7 record on clay courts in 2026, while Castagnola has limited recorded results on clay courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Arnaboldi, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Arnaboldi leads 1–0 over Castagnola, including a win in their most recent meeting.