Jannik Sinner vs Cameron Norrie · Match odds & ELO prediction
Madrid • Clay • Apr 28, 2026 • 9:15 AM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Jannik Sinner
Key insights
Player performance profile
Jannik Sinner
93% · 39–3 on hard
85% · 11–2 on clay
89% · 8–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
66%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,170 points across 83 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,170 points across 83 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 8.6 | 100% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.3 | 100% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +5.0 | 86% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 81% | 98% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Cameron Norrie
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
48%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,567 points across 84 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,567 points across 84 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.3 | 59% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.9 | 48% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +4.3 | 83% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 55% | 63% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Jannik Sinner and Cameron Norrie are set to meet at the Madrid on April 28, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Sinner enters with limited recorded results on clay courts in 2026, while Norrie has limited recorded results on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Sinner entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Sinner leads 1–0 over Norrie, including a win in their most recent meeting.