Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka · Match odds & ELO prediction
Madrid • Clay • Apr 27, 2026 • 11:10 AM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Aryna Sabalenka
Key insights
Player performance profile
Aryna Sabalenka
96% · 23–1 on hard
75% · 3–1 on clay
Games won (last 10)
60%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,385 points across 95 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,385 points across 95 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.9 | 99% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.9 | 79% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +8.5 | 96% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 81% | 97% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Naomi Osaka
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
57%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,797 points across 52 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,797 points across 52 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.3 | 99% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.5 | 32% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +6.7 | 93% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 70% | 88% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Aryna Sabalenka and Naomi Osaka are set to meet at the Madrid on April 27, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Sabalenka enters with a 3–1 record on clay courts in 2026, while Osaka has limited recorded results on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Sabalenka entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Sabalenka leads 4–0 over Osaka, including a win in their most recent meeting.