Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Daniel Merida Aguilar · Match odds & ELO prediction
Madrid • Clay • Apr 27, 2026 • 12:10 PM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Stefanos Tsitsipas
Key insights
Player performance profile
Stefanos Tsitsipas
56% · 9–7 on hard
50% · 3–3 on clay
Games won (last 10)
54%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,531 points across 55 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,531 points across 55 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.8 | 92% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.5 | 38% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -0.0 | 48% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 62% | 77% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Daniel Merida Aguilar
67% · 12–6 on hard
76% · 13–4 on clay
Games won (last 10)
48%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,216 points across 21 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,216 points across 21 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.4 | 10% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.7 | 90% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +4.2 | 82% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 75% | 94% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniel Merida Aguilar are set to meet at the Madrid on April 27, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Tsitsipas enters with a 3–3 record on clay courts in 2026, while Aguilar has posted a 13–4 mark on clay courts this season. Based on Elo ratings, this projects as a tight matchup with neither player holding more than a slight statistical edge. In their head-to-head history, Tsitsipas leads 1–0 over Aguilar, including a win in their most recent meeting.