Daniil Medvedev vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer · Match odds & ELO prediction
Madrid • Clay • Apr 27, 2026 • 1:40 PM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Daniil Medvedev
Key insights
Player performance profile
Daniil Medvedev
100% · 5–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
49%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,464 points across 77 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,464 points across 77 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.4 | 76% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.6 | 96% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -4.4 | 15% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 54% | 58% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
59% · 10–7 on hard
55% · 6–5 on clay
Games won (last 10)
51%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,132 points across 29 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,132 points across 29 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.5 | 18% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.4 | 59% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -3.7 | 19% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 23% | 4% | Vulnerable |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Daniil Medvedev and Nicolai Budkov Kjaer are set to meet at the Madrid on April 27, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Medvedev enters with limited recorded results on clay courts in 2026, while Kjaer has posted a 6–5 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Medvedev entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Medvedev leads 1–0 over Kjaer, including a win in their most recent meeting.