Jessica Pegula vs Marta Kostyuk · Match odds & ELO prediction
Madrid • Clay • Apr 26, 2026 • 1:50 PM
Final score
0 - 2
Winner Marta Kostyuk
Key insights
Player performance profile
Jessica Pegula
83% · 19–4 on hard
86% · 6–1 on clay
Games won (last 10)
56%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,589 points across 93 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,589 points across 93 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.4 | 97% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.6 | 72% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.3 | 60% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 62% | 75% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Marta Kostyuk
80% · 4–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
63%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,608 points across 65 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,608 points across 65 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.2 | 80% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.7 | 90% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.8 | 55% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 54% | 56% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Jessica Pegula and Marta Kostyuk are set to meet at the Madrid on April 26, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Pegula enters with a 6–1 record on clay courts in 2026, while Kostyuk has limited recorded results on clay courts this season. Based on Elo ratings, this projects as a tight matchup with neither player holding more than a slight statistical edge. In their head-to-head history, Pegula leads 4–3 over Kostyuk.