Joao Fonseca vs Rafael Jodar · Match odds & ELO prediction
Madrid • Clay • Apr 26, 2026 • 8:45 PM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Rafael Jodar
Key insights
Player performance profile
Joao Fonseca
Games won (last 10)
54%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,853 points across 61 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,853 points across 61 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.7 | 90% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.5 | 57% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -4.5 | 14% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 52% | 54% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Rafael Jodar
86% · 6–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
56%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,119 points across 22 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,119 points across 22 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.2 | 39% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.9 | 92% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.4 | 62% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 67% | 90% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Joao Fonseca and Rafael Jodar are set to meet at the Madrid on April 26, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Fonseca enters with limited recorded results on clay courts in 2026, while Jodar has limited recorded results on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Jodar entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Jodar leads 1–0 over Fonseca, including a win in their most recent meeting.