Hailey Baptiste vs Jasmine Paolini · Match odds & ELO prediction
Madrid • Clay • Apr 25, 2026 • 3:05 PM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Hailey Baptiste
Key insights
Player performance profile
Hailey Baptiste
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
50%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,818 points across 67 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,818 points across 67 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.8 | 87% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.7 | 16% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -1.3 | 34% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 52% | 52% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Jasmine Paolini
53% · 8–7 on hard
33% · 1–2 on clay
Games won (last 10)
51%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,669 points across 77 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,669 points across 77 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.8 | 63% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.9 | 79% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.4 | 62% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 56% | 59% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Hailey Baptiste and Jasmine Paolini are set to meet at the Madrid on April 25, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Baptiste enters with limited recorded results on clay courts in 2026, while Paolini has posted a 1–2 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Paolini, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Baptiste leads 2–1 over Paolini, including a win in their most recent meeting.