Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Corentin Moutet · Match odds & ELO prediction
Madrid • Clay • Apr 25, 2026 • 5:20 PM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Daniel Merida Aguilar
Key insights
Player performance profile
Daniel Merida Aguilar
67% · 12–6 on hard
76% · 13–4 on clay
Games won (last 10)
48%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,216 points across 21 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,216 points across 21 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.4 | 10% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.7 | 90% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +4.2 | 82% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 75% | 94% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Corentin Moutet
58% · 22–16 on hard
47% · 8–9 on clay
69% · 9–4 on grass
Games won (last 10)
49%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,034 points across 70 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,034 points across 70 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.3 | 20% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.5 | 89% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +2.4 | 71% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 49% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Daniel Merida Aguilar and Corentin Moutet are set to meet at the Madrid on April 25, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Aguilar enters with a 13–4 record on clay courts in 2026, while Moutet has limited recorded results on clay courts this season. Based on Elo ratings, this projects as a tight matchup with neither player holding more than a slight statistical edge. In their head-to-head history, Aguilar leads 1–0 over Moutet, including a win in their most recent meeting.