Alexander Bublik vs Stefanos Tsitsipas · Match odds & ELO prediction
Madrid • Clay • Apr 25, 2026 • 7:55 PM
Final score
0 - 2
Winner Stefanos Tsitsipas
Key insights
Player performance profile
Alexander Bublik
100% · 4–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
46%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,471 points across 75 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,471 points across 75 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.7 | 90% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.2 | 23% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +4.2 | 82% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 61% | 76% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Stefanos Tsitsipas
56% · 9–7 on hard
50% · 3–3 on clay
Games won (last 10)
54%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,531 points across 55 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,531 points across 55 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.8 | 92% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.5 | 38% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -0.0 | 48% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 62% | 77% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Alexander Bublik and Stefanos Tsitsipas are set to meet at the Madrid on April 25, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Bublik enters with limited recorded results on clay courts in 2026, while Tsitsipas has posted a 3–3 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Bublik entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Tsitsipas leads 1–0 over Bublik, including a win in their most recent meeting.