Daniil Medvedev vs Fabian Marozsan · Match odds & ELO prediction
Madrid • Clay • Apr 25, 2026 • 5:05 PM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Daniil Medvedev
Key insights
Player performance profile
Daniil Medvedev
100% · 5–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
52%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,650 points across 78 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,650 points across 78 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.3 | 75% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.6 | 96% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -4.2 | 15% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 54% | 58% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Fabian Marozsan
46% · 6–7 on hard
50% · 5–5 on clay
Games won (last 10)
43%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,459 points across 66 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,459 points across 66 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.9 | 52% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.1 | 44% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.6 | 54% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 57% | 67% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Daniil Medvedev and Fabian Marozsan are set to meet at the Madrid on April 25, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Medvedev enters with limited recorded results on clay courts in 2026, while Marozsan has posted a 5–5 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Marozsan entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Medvedev leads 4–0 over Marozsan, including a win in their most recent meeting.