Jessica Pegula vs Katie Boulter · Match odds & ELO prediction
Madrid • Clay • Apr 24, 2026 • 7:45 PM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Jessica Pegula
Key insights
Player performance profile
Jessica Pegula
83% · 19–4 on hard
86% · 6–1 on clay
Games won (last 10)
56%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,344 points across 91 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,344 points across 91 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.3 | 96% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.5 | 74% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.0 | 58% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 62% | 76% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Katie Boulter
69% · 11–5 on hard
50% · 3–3 on clay
Games won (last 10)
49%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,542 points across 52 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,542 points across 52 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.5 | 40% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.4 | 35% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -3.4 | 20% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 38% | 23% | Vulnerable |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Jessica Pegula and Katie Boulter are set to meet at the Madrid on April 24, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Pegula enters with a 6–1 record on clay courts in 2026, while Boulter has posted a 3–3 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Boulter entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Pegula leads 2–1 over Boulter, including a win in their most recent meeting.