Dusan Lajovic vs Matteo Arnaldi · Match odds & ELO prediction
Madrid • Clay • Apr 20, 2026 • 3:25 PM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Dusan Lajovic
Key insights
Player performance profile
Dusan Lajovic
67% · 4–2 on hard
45% · 9–11 on clay
Games won (last 10)
50%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,606 points across 44 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,606 points across 44 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.1 | 23% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.2 | 80% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -3.6 | 20% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 49% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Matteo Arnaldi
25% · 1–3 on hard
55% · 6–5 on clay
Games won (last 10)
52%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,434 points across 57 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,434 points across 57 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.4 | 19% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.8 | 32% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +3.8 | 79% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 59% | 71% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Dusan Lajovic and Matteo Arnaldi are set to meet at the Madrid on April 20, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Lajovic enters with a 9–11 record on clay courts in 2026, while Arnaldi has posted a 6–5 mark on clay courts this season. Based on Elo ratings, this projects as a tight matchup with neither player holding more than a slight statistical edge. In their head-to-head history, Lajovic leads 1–0 over Arnaldi, including a win in their most recent meeting.