Carlos Alcaraz vs Otto Virtanen · Match odds & ELO prediction
Barcelona • Clay • Apr 14, 2026 • 2:10 PM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Carlos Alcaraz
Key insights
Player performance profile
Carlos Alcaraz
84% · 38–7 on hard
96% · 22–1 on clay
92% · 11–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
60%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,826 points across 91 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,826 points across 91 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.6 | 95% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.7 | 99% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +7.0 | 94% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 82% | 98% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Otto Virtanen
67% · 8–4 on hard
29% · 2–5 on clay
Games won (last 10)
48%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,651 points across 30 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,651 points across 30 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.6 | 29% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.0 | 68% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +2.7 | 74% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 55% | 61% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Carlos Alcaraz and Otto Virtanen are set to meet at the Barcelona on April 14, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Alcaraz enters with limited recorded results on clay courts in 2026, while Virtanen has posted a 2–5 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Alcaraz entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Alcaraz leads 1–0 over Virtanen, including a win in their most recent meeting.