Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Toby Samuel · Match odds & ELO prediction
Madrid • Clay • Apr 9, 2026 • 2:00 PM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Toby Samuel
Key insights
Player performance profile
Stefanos Sakellaridis
69% · 11–5 on hard
63% · 10–6 on clay
Games won (last 10)
55%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~803 points across 8 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~803 points across 8 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.8 | 71% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.9 | 30% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -2.9 | 24% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | Insufficient data | — | — |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Toby Samuel
75% · 3–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
49%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~364 points across 2 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~364 points across 2 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.1 | 39% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.7 | 96% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -3.4 | 20% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | Insufficient data | — | — |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Stefanos Sakellaridis and Toby Samuel are set to meet at the Madrid on April 9, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Sakellaridis enters with a 10–6 record on clay courts in 2026, while Samuel has limited recorded results on clay courts this season. Based on Elo ratings, this projects as a tight matchup with neither player holding more than a slight statistical edge. In their head-to-head history, Samuel leads 2–0 over Sakellaridis, including a win in their most recent meeting.