Cameron Norrie vs Alex De Minaur · Match odds & ELO prediction
Monte Carlo • Clay • Apr 7, 2026 • 2:40 PM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Alex De Minaur
Key insights
Player performance profile
Cameron Norrie
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
49%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,567 points across 84 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,567 points across 84 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.3 | 59% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.9 | 49% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +4.3 | 83% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 55% | 63% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Alex De Minaur
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
57%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,631 points across 98 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,631 points across 98 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.0 | 72% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.4 | 97% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -1.8 | 31% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 47% | 38% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Cameron Norrie and Alex De Minaur are set to meet at the Monte Carlo on April 7, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Norrie enters with limited recorded results on clay courts in 2026, while Minaur has limited recorded results on clay courts this season. Based on Elo ratings, this projects as a tight matchup with neither player holding more than a slight statistical edge. Their head-to-head is currently level, with each player having recorded 3 wins.