Daniel Rincon vs Toby Samuel · Match odds & ELO prediction
Madrid • Clay • Apr 7, 2026 • 1:05 PM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Toby Samuel
Key insights
Player performance profile
Daniel Rincon
40% · 4–6 on hard
64% · 9–5 on clay
Games won (last 10)
48%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~380 points across 3 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~380 points across 3 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.2 | 22% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.3 | 87% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -5.7 | 8% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | Insufficient data | — | — |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Toby Samuel
75% · 3–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
49%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~518 points across 3 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~518 points across 3 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.6 | 48% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.8 | 96% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -2.5 | 25% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | Insufficient data | — | — |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Daniel Rincon and Toby Samuel are set to meet at the Madrid on April 7, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Rincon enters with a 9–5 record on clay courts in 2026, while Samuel has limited recorded results on clay courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Samuel, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Samuel leads 4–0 over Rincon, including a win in their most recent meeting.