Matteo Arnaldi vs Alexandre Muller · Match odds & ELO prediction
Monte Carlo • Clay • Apr 5, 2026 • 12:10 PM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Alexandre Muller
Key insights
Player performance profile
Matteo Arnaldi
100% · 1–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
39%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,900 points across 54 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,900 points across 54 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.4 | 20% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.6 | 34% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +3.9 | 79% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 57% | 68% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Alexandre Muller
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
49%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,382 points across 57 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,382 points across 57 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.6 | 16% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.4 | 40% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +5.5 | 89% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 60% | 72% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Matteo Arnaldi and Alexandre Muller are set to meet at the Monte Carlo on April 5, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Arnaldi enters with limited recorded results on clay courts in 2026, while Muller has limited recorded results on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Muller entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Muller leads 2–1 over Arnaldi, including a win in their most recent meeting.