Aryna Sabalenka vs Qinwen Zheng · Match odds & ELO prediction
Miami • Hard • Mar 23, 2026 • 9:15 PM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Aryna Sabalenka
Key insights
Player performance profile
Aryna Sabalenka
96% · 23–1 on hard
75% · 3–1 on clay
Games won (last 10)
60%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,385 points across 95 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,385 points across 95 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.9 | 99% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.9 | 79% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +8.5 | 96% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 81% | 97% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Qinwen Zheng
57% · 4–3 on hard
67% · 2–1 on clay
Games won (last 10)
48%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~5,464 points across 39 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~5,464 points across 39 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.5 | 83% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.6 | 49% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -2.5 | 26% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 44% | 34% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Aryna Sabalenka and Qinwen Zheng are set to meet at the Miami on March 23, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Sabalenka enters with a 23–1 record on hard courts in 2026, while Zheng has posted a 4–3 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Sabalenka entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Sabalenka leads 8–1 over Zheng, including a win in their most recent meeting.