Shintaro Mochizuki vs Keegan Smith · Match odds & ELO prediction
Morelia • Hard • Mar 24, 2026 • 12:05 AM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Shintaro Mochizuki
Key insights
Player performance profile
Shintaro Mochizuki
0% · 0–3 on hard
Games won (last 10)
47%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~5,363 points across 34 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~5,363 points across 34 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.7 | 2% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.9 | 90% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -1.4 | 34% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 47% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Keegan Smith
100% · 4–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
52%
10 matches tracked
Match Overview
Shintaro Mochizuki and Keegan Smith are set to meet at the Morelia on March 24, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Mochizuki enters with a 0–3 record on hard courts in 2026, while Smith has posted a 4–0 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Smith, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Mochizuki leads 2–1 over Smith, including a win in their most recent meeting.