Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Alex De Minaur · Match odds & ELO prediction
Miami • Hard • Mar 21, 2026 • 1:00 AM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Stefanos Tsitsipas
Key insights
Player performance profile
Stefanos Tsitsipas
56% · 9–7 on hard
50% · 3–3 on clay
Games won (last 10)
56%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,531 points across 55 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,531 points across 55 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.8 | 91% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.5 | 38% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -0.0 | 47% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 57% | 66% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Alex De Minaur
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
51%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,447 points across 97 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,447 points across 97 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.2 | 72% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.4 | 97% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -1.9 | 30% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 47% | 37% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alex De Minaur are set to meet at the Miami on March 21, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Tsitsipas enters with a 9–7 record on hard courts in 2026, while Minaur has posted a 2–1 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Minaur entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Tsitsipas leads 6–1 over Minaur, including a win in their most recent meeting.