Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Alex De Minaur · Match odds & ELO prediction
Miami • Hard • Mar 21, 2026 • 1:00 AM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Stefanos Tsitsipas
Key insights
Player performance profile
Stefanos Tsitsipas
100% · 3–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
48%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,999 points across 52 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,999 points across 52 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.6 | 89% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.1 | 45% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -1.4 | 34% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 58% | 69% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Alex De Minaur
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
46%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,503 points across 91 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,503 points across 91 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.6 | 77% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.4 | 97% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -2.4 | 28% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 48% | 43% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alex De Minaur are set to meet at the Miami on March 21, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Tsitsipas enters with a 3–0 record on hard courts in 2026, while Minaur has posted a 2–1 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Minaur entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Tsitsipas leads 6–1 over Minaur, including a win in their most recent meeting.