Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinner · Match odds & ELO prediction
ATP Indian Wells • Hard • Mar 15, 2026 • 9:25 PM
Final score
0 - 2
Winner Jannik Sinner
Key insights
Player performance profile
Daniil Medvedev
100% · 5–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
55%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,126 points across 74 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,126 points across 74 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.6 | 78% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.5 | 95% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -4.7 | 12% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 52% | 54% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Jannik Sinner
93% · 39–3 on hard
85% · 11–2 on clay
89% · 8–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
66%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,069 points across 74 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,069 points across 74 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 8.6 | 100% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.1 | 100% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +4.9 | 87% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 80% | 98% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner are set to meet at the ATP Indian Wells on March 15, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Medvedev enters with a 5–0 record on hard courts in 2026, while Sinner has limited recorded results on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Sinner entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Sinner leads 9–1 over Medvedev, including a win in their most recent meeting.