Mariano Navone vs Nick Hardt · Match odds & ELO prediction
Cap Cana • Hard • Mar 12, 2026 • 1:40 AM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Mariano Navone
Key insights
Player performance profile
Mariano Navone
55% · 6–5 on hard
57% · 8–6 on clay
Games won (last 10)
57%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,976 points across 61 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,976 points across 61 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.5 | 8% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.1 | 99% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -5.4 | 9% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 33% | 12% | Vulnerable |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Nick Hardt
57% · 4–3 on hard
90% · 9–1 on clay
Games won (last 10)
60%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~96 points across 1 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~96 points across 1 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -5.2 | 0% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.7 | 90% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -1.3 | 35% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | Insufficient data | — | — |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Mariano Navone and Nick Hardt are set to meet at the Cap Cana on March 12, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Navone enters with a 6–5 record on hard courts in 2026, while Hardt has posted a 4–3 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Navone entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Navone leads 2–1 over Hardt, including a win in their most recent meeting.