Ben Shelton vs Reilly Opelka · Match odds & ELO prediction
ATP Indian Wells • Hard • Mar 6, 2026 • 9:10 PM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Ben Shelton
Key insights
Player performance profile
Ben Shelton
64% · 27–15 on hard
58% · 7–5 on clay
60% · 6–4 on grass
Games won (last 10)
56%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,599 points across 71 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,599 points across 71 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.3 | 97% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -5.3 | 5% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +8.0 | 97% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 71% | 94% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Reilly Opelka
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
50%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,785 points across 60 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,785 points across 60 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.6 | 98% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -9.1 | 1% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +6.1 | 91% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 62% | 80% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Ben Shelton and Reilly Opelka are set to meet at the ATP Indian Wells on March 6, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Shelton enters with limited recorded results on hard courts in 2026, while Opelka has posted a 1–1 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Shelton entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Shelton leads 3–0 over Opelka, including a win in their most recent meeting.